Ο τίτλος του post είναι, σε μία πρόταση, η εικόνα της αγοράς πρόβειου γάλακτος στο πεντάμηνο Οκτωβρίου–Φεβρουαρίου 2025/26 έναντι του αντίστοιχου 2024/25. Τα στοιχεία δείχνουν μια αντιφατική αλλά εξαιρετικά αποκαλυπτική δυναμική. Η παραδοθείσα ποσότητα υποχώρησε κατά 4,6% σε εθνικό επίπεδο (από 254,2 σε 242,5 εκατ. κιλά), ενώ η μέσοσταθμική τιμή παραγωγού αυξήθηκε κατά +7,1% (από…

Για όσους παρακολουθούν ενεργά την αγορά βοείου κρέατος, μια αλλαγή στα στοιχεία της τελευταίας περιόδου επιδέχεται σπουδαία ερμηνεία. Η Ισπανία αυξάνει συστηματικά το βάρος σφαγίου των αρσενικών βοοειδών άνω του ενός έτους, φτάνοντας κατά μέσο όρο τα 347 κιλά ανά σφάγιο. Πρόκειται για αριθμό που, στο πλαίσιο του σημερινού ευρωπαϊκού τοπίου, δεν είναι απλή παραγωγική…

Υπάρχουν αριθμοί που ενοχλούν επειδή είναι σωστοί. Ένας από τους πολλούς τέτοιους αριθμούς είναι ότι η Ελλάδα κατέγραψε το 2025 μέσο πληθωρισμό 21% στο βόειο κρέας. Ο υψηλότερος στην ΕΕ. Μοναδικός στο είδος του. Και δεν είναι σύμπτωση. Είναι αποτέλεσμα. Για δεκαετίες, η ελληνική αγροτική πολιτική αντιμετώπισε την κρεοπαραγωγό βοοτροφία ως κλάδο δευτερεύουσας σημασίας. Ως…

H Λέσβος κατέστη επίκεντρο του πρώτου σημαντικού ξεσπάσματος αφθώδους πυρετού στον ελληνικό χώρο εδώ και δεκαετίες. Η απόκριση των ελληνικών αρχών, με την επιβολή καθολικού lockdown σε ολόκληρο το νησί, θέτει ένα ξεκάθαρο θεμελιώδες ερώτημα. Αποτελεί η μέγιστη αυστηρότητα των μέτρων εγγύηση επιδημιολογικής αποτελεσματικότητας, ή μήπως αντιστρατεύεται τη λογική της αναλογικής διαχείρισης κινδύνου; Η κεντρική θεωρητική…

Απρίλιος 2026 Το κανονιστικό πλαίσιο που διέπει την ελληνική αιγοπροβατοτροφία πάσχει από δομικές αδυναμίες που δεν αφορούν τη “γραφειοκρατία” αλλά τον ίδιο τον σχεδιασμό του νόμου. Κατά την άποψη μου υπάρχουν επτά κρίσιμα κενά, σε καθένα από τα οποία εντοπίζεται συγκεκριμένο νομοθετικό μέσο (νόμος, ΠΔ, ΥΑ ή ΚΥΑ) που απαιτείται για τη θεραπεία τους. Είναι…

Στην ελληνική κτηνοτροφία έχουμε μάθει να αντιδρούμε σε αυτό που φαίνεται. Στον αφθώδη πυρετό, στην ευλογιά, στα λεγόμενα «εξωτικά» νοσήματα. Όταν εμφανίζονται, το σύστημα κινητοποιείται. Και σωστά κινητοποιείται. Όμως το πραγματικό κόστος δεν βρίσκεται μόνο εκεί. Βρίσκεται κυρίως στα κοπάδια που θεωρούμε ότι «δεν έχουν τίποτα», αλλά στην πράξη χάνουν παραγωγή, αναπαραγωγική απόδοση και εισόδημα…

Αυτές τις ημέρες είχα την ευκαιρία να μιλήσω με ανθρώπους της αγοράς γάλακτος από Ολλανδία, Ουγγαρία, Ρουμανία, Ιταλία, Δανία και Βέλγιο και να “δέσω” αυτές τις συζητήσεις με τα reports που συστηματικά παρακολουθώ. Το συμπέρασμα, στη βάση της δικής μου κατανόησης, δεν είναι προφανές και σίγουρα δεν είναι αυτό που δείχνουν οι τιμές. Η ευρωπαϊκή αγορά γάλακτος…

Ioannis Kaimakamis | PhD, Farm x Market x Policy The potential acquisition of a Greek feed producer by Central European group UBM highlights a largely overlooked reality. The animal feed sector behind Greece’s sheep and goat dairy industry may be one of the most strategic animal-related business ecosystems in Europe. Feta is officially recognised as…

Οι εξαγωγές ελληνικής φέτας παρουσιάζουν αδιάκοπη ανοδική τροχιά επί 18 συνεχόμενα έτη. Το 2025 η συνολική αξία διαμορφώθηκε σε 835,1 εκατ. €, από 138,8 εκατ. € το 2007, αύξηση +502%. Έτος Σύνολο (€ εκατ.) Intra-EU (€ εκατ.) Extra-EU (€ εκατ.) Όγκος (100kg) Τιμή €/kg ΔΕΤ % 2007 138,8 103,6 35,2 274.367 5,06 — 2008 156,7…

Του Δρ. Ιωάννη Καϊμακάμη Τα πρόσφατα στοιχεία για τις σφαγές, το εμπόριο και τη διαθεσιμότητα βοείου κρέατος επιβεβαιώνουν με απόλυτη σαφήνεια ότι η Ελλάδα παραμένει μια χώρα με δομικό έλλειμμα στην κρεοπαραγωγό βοοτροφία. Το ποσοστό αυτάρκειας κινείται σταθερά σε εξαιρετικά χαμηλά επίπεδα, περί το 17-20%, γεγονός που σημαίνει ότι λιγότερο από το ένα πέμπτο της…

Insights • Meat Market • Greece Στατιστικά Σφαγών 2023–2025 Η ελληνική αγορά κρέατος βρίσκεται σε φάση αναδιάρθρωσης. Στην πρόσφατη ανάλυσή μου χαρτογραφώ τις βασικές τάσεις,τις δομικές μεταβολές και τις προκλήσεις για παραγωγούς, εμπόριο και βιομηχανία κρέατος. Αιγοπρόβατα ↓ Βοοειδή ↑ Χοιρινά ↑ Μετατόπιση μίγματος Αιγοπρόβατα 2023→25 −21,5% σε ζώα Πρόβατα: −24,5% • Αρνιά: −39,6% Βοοειδή…

The announcement that CVC Capital Partners has reached an agreement to acquire Animal Nutrition & Health (ANH)from DSM-Firmenich at an enterprise value of approximately €2.2bn, including an earn-out of up to €0.5bn, was received by the market as a major transaction. DSM-Firmenich will retain a 20% equity stake in the divested businesses, while the transaction is expected to close toward the end of 2026,…

Suggested citation (web): Kaimakamis.com/Insights “The EFSA Report on Sheep and Goat Pox: What It Is, What It Offers, and What It Leaves Unanswered”. On 4 February, EFSA published its report on sheep and goat pox in Greece and Bulgaria. Almost immediately, the document began circulating in public discussion as a “scientific paper.” The label is…

Sunday Reading • One Health • Governance Suggested citation (web): Kaimakamis.com/Insights “When Signals Precede Awareness: What the Dutch Zoonoses Structure Teaches About Governing Risk”. Most zoonotic events do not enter public life with drama. They begin quietly. An unusual laboratory finding, an unexpected morbidity pattern in a herd, a wildlife incident that does not quite…

In 2025, Greece appears to be slaughtering more cattle than before, with total slaughter headcount and carcass output edging upward. Yet this volume growth masks a troubling trend: the average carcass weight per animal is falling. In effect, farmers are breeding more animals to get only marginally more meat. Sector data and industry analyses indicate that under economic pressure,…

I shared my thoughts on the EU–Mercosur agreement and its implications for the meat industry in FOODReporter, a respected Greek daily newspaper covering food and agriculture. My reflection discusses how market access actually works through tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), actual import volumes, and substitution effects. It’s important to note that the threat to European livestock isn’t…

The debate around the EU–Mercosur agreement has largely been reduced to a binary choice: for or against. This framing may be convenient politically, but it is analytically weak. If the objective is to speak seriously about competitiveness, system resilience, and access to markets, the real question is not ideological alignment. It is risk: what risk is created, where it…

From Domokos to Azores EAAP–ASAS 2026 The acceptance for publication and presentation of our paper at the EAAP–ASAS Conference on “Livestock farming and the environment: emissions and solutions” is more than a scientific milestone. It is, in essence, a validation of a way of thinking about livestock systems that starts from the farm floor and ends at…

Feta exports January to October 2025 What the numbers say and why the map is the most strategic visual in the story The January to October picture is clear. Export value rose from EUR 687.9 million in 2024 to EUR 731.8 million in 2025, an uplift of EUR 43.9 million or 6.38%. This is a…

What looks like three business cards on a desk is, in reality, a full map of how animal industries function and why most interventions fail. BIOLOGY Milk Zone (MEVGAL) Variability • Farmers • Animal reality Sets the system’s boundaries INDUSTRIAL LEVERAGE Feed & Performance (ELVIZ) Efficiency • Cost structure • Output Turns biology into margin…

The beef chapter is quota-capped, the political cost is not. That is why the debate is drifting toward a CAP-linked “adaptation cushion” for 2028+. Executive summary The EU-Mercosur discussion is often framed as “pro- or anti-meat”. That headline-friendly framing hides the real issue: the EU is pursuing a geopolitical and commercial deal while anticipating political…

What if a product could be sold not as meat, but as… emotion? Would you dare to do it? Meat & Livestock Australia’s latest lamb campaign says out loud what many of us in the livestock sector have been quietly acknowledging for years: meat, especially lamb, is not only a nutritional choice. It is also…

Τον τελευταίο καιρό πιάνω τον εαυτό μου να επιστρέφει συνεχώς στο ίδιο ερώτημα. Tι είναι τελικά «πρόοδος» στην κτηνοτροφία; Είναι να κρατάμε ζωντανό ένα μοντέλο επιβίωσης ή να χτίζουμε μια κανονική, ανταγωνιστική παραγωγή; Για μένα η απάντηση είναι καθαρή. Επιτυχημένο επιχειρείν σημαίνει μετρήσιμη απόδοση, τεχνολογία, οργάνωση, πειθαρχία και αγορά. Όχι απλώς «να βγαίνει η χρονιά»…

Sheep & Goat Pox governance as incentives, data, and state capacity, not as ad-hoc crisis management The core thesis The sheep and goat pox (SGP) policy in Greece cannot be treated as a sequence of ad hoc circulars, emergency prohibitions, and reactive enforcement. The Greek episode reveals a well-documented governance pattern in high-uncertainty animal-health crises: information…

Over the past nearly two years, I have consistently brought up the same important point through formal messages to various political leaders, but it still hasn’t been resolved. Emergency support measures are necessary, but they are not a governing model. If agricultural and especially animal production policy continues to rely on episodic relief, Greece will…

Δρ. Ιωάννης Καϊμακάμης Η ευλογιά των αιγοπροβάτων δεν είναι μόνο επιδημιολογικό ζήτημα. Είναι κρίση συλλογικής δράσης. Όταν η απόκλιση έχει χαμηλή πιθανότητα εντοπισμού και μικρό κόστος, γίνεται «ορθολογική». Η αποτελεσματική πολιτική δεν είναι η επανάληψη μέτρων, αλλά ο ανασχεδιασμός του παιγνίου ώστε η συμμόρφωση να είναι η σταθερή ισορροπία. Η ευλογιά των αιγοπροβάτων, όπως εξελίσσεται…

I built a forecasting pack for Greek sheep milk production because I was tired of discussing the sector as if the only variables that mattered were “a few cents per kg” and “Sheep Pox Spread.” Price and zoonoses matter, but without volume discipline and without understanding where volume is shifting, price becomes background noise. This…

When we talk about the Common Agricultural Policy, the conversation usually stops at the numbers. How many billions arrive from Brussels, how they are allocated between regions and sectors, and what percentage of farm income they represent. It is a familiar, almost ritual debate. From inside a CAP paying agency, the picture looks very different.…

A personal note on timing: I proposed this in 2024 and kept building after the “no” In 2024, I submitted a structured Scope of Work to a dairy company proposing an Integrated Dairy Tactical Planning & Milk Valorisation Decision Support System, a single planning layer between commercial demand (forecast, promotions, customer service rules) and operational reality…

I have lived the CAP from four angles that rarely sit in the same room. First, as a farm operator, where CAP rules are not “policy”; they are daily constraints, cash-flow timing, and operational risk. Second, as a private-sector strategist/advisor, translating CAP incentives and restrictions into investable plans (or recognising when they are not). Third,…

If you still read sheep and goat milk through the old commodity lens- “more litres, lower price; fewer litres, higher price”- 2025 France should bother you. It should bother you because it disproves a comforting myth: that price is primarily the outcome of biology and seasonality. In reality, price is increasingly the outcome of structure. The…

Today I studied Greece’s spatio-temporal charts for sheep pox spread and reached a simple conclusion: we do not have “chaos.” We have recognisable transmission patterns. And if the patterns are different, policy cannot be uniform everywhere. Put even more plainly, I see four operational typologies in the regional curves. Spaghetti, plateau-with-peaks, train, late surge. Spaghetti ≠ Train…

While digging through old notes in Notability, I received an unexpected “gift”: I travelled almost ten years back in time. I found my handwritten procurement notes from the Livestock Production Division at Creta Farms. For me, they are a period snapshot- evidence of the season when I began to truly understand what corporate business farming means in…

In Greece, beef finishing is still often discussed as if it were mainly a nutrition problem: “What ration do you run? What premix? What feed mill?” Feed matters, of course. But when you operate a six-month finishing cycle with tight spreads, feed is rarely what decides whether the system produces margin or quietly destroys capital.…

What Greece’s P3-70-5.1 pre-call signals for the next phase of CAP delivery The pre-publication of Intervention P3-70-5.1 (“Reducing carbon footprint in arable crops”) matters for reasons that go well beyond the limited set of crops it targets. In practical terms, it is a clear signal that CAP delivery in Greece is moving from a practice-declared logic (“I applied a…

Greece is trying to manage a high-friction animal health crisis with a low-information toolkit. In a sheep pox/goat pox event, “PCR-positive” is necessary, but it is no longer sufficient for governance. Not when vaccination is part of the public debate, not when illegal vaccine use is credibly alleged, and not when animal movements are both…

The margin is not “milk price minus feed.” It is herd structure, lactation conversion, and cost absorption. Most dairy-sheep discussions start and end with the milk price. That is understandable, but strategically incomplete. In a modern dairy sheep unit, margin is not decided by one variable. It is decided by whether the farm can convert animals…

In most boardroom discussions, pig farming is reduced to one variable: feed cost. In practice, feed is only the loudest line item. The real profit-and-loss story is written by mix: what you produce, what you sell, at what weight and yield, through which channel and how stable that operating model remains under disease and trade shocks.…

Every livestock region in Europe says roughly the same thing: “We want innovation, added value, better income for farmers.” Very few, however, manage to turn that aspiration into a concrete structure that can be financed, governed and actually used by producers. One of the projects I am most proud of is designing a Livestock Innovation Hub for a leading…

Today’s writing analyses the recent evolution of the Greek goat milk sector along the value chain, combining farm-gate delivery data with retail scanner information for ready-to-drink (RTD) goat milk. Using annual farm-gate records for 2021–2023 and national supermarket panel data for the same period, we quantify how value creation is distributed between primary production and…

When you open a dairy business plan that actually matters, you should feel that you are looking at a capital asset, not at a nice story about milk and cheese. In this second version (see my first writing at: https://kaimakamis.com/2025/12/06/dairy-processor-business-plan-from-milk-flows-to-irr/ ) I stay with the same core idea – a full financial model for a Greek…

When I first put together the Projects page on this website, the aim was simple: to document what I have been working on over the past years – from goat and dairy-sheep investment models to zoonoses governance and blockchain in the beef supply chain. Looking at this portfolio today, I realise it actually tells a more important…

When you look at a dairy business from the outside, you see brands, shelves and maybe a feta ad on TV.When I build a business plan for a dairy processor, I start from something much less glamorous: a raw milk flow, a debt schedule and a long list of product codes. This insight is based…

How the Greek Ministry of Agriculture’s Animal Movement Guidelines Are Reshaping Daily Livestock Farming in Greece Thessaloniki, 05/12/2025 At first glance, sheep and goat pox in Greece looks like a “technical” veterinary disease-management issue. In practice, the current epidemic has become a stress test for the entire system. For how the administration understands risk, how…

Government, CAP and Capital at Work Who survives, who exits and who gets to scale in Greek dairy sheep is not determined by “talent” or “hard work”. It is the result of a selection environment shaped by three forces: Government, the CAP regulator, and capital. In theory, the sector is simple. Small and medium farms,…

In this insight, I look at Greek feta exports in 2025 and what happens when booming volumes meet sheep and goat milk prices. If you only consider supermarket shelves in Europe, the story of Greek feta in 2025 seems straightforward. The cheese is widely available, sales are increasing, and the “Greek” brand remains influential. However, when comparing…

When examining only the import charts, Greece in 2025 appears to be overwhelmed by soybean meal and corn. Ships continue unloading at the ports, the tonnage for January–September increases, and it is tempting to conclude: “The sector is becoming ever more intensive.” But that is only half of the story. The real question is not…

Behind a high-solids tank of sheep milk, there is never “just a concentrate.” There is always a nutrition logic – and very often, a premix that quietly does the difficult work in the background. CM 1332 LACTATING SHEEP & GOAT 2% BLUE is one such premix. It is a 2% inclusion formulation for high-yielding ewes and intensive…

When individuals inquire, “What is the value of this dairy farm?” the customary response is either an approximate multiple of EBITDA or a broker’s estimate derived from comparable transactions. Both responses are incomplete. A modern dairy farm is not simply a business asset on the high street. It is a long-lasting, capital-heavy, biological system that…

Evidence from a panel of 41 companies where Feta is more than half of the turnover This Insight focuses on the “Feta core” of the Greek cheesemaking industry: 41 companies where over 50% of their turnover derives from Feta, based on data from 2018–2022, totalling 193 firm-year observations. In 2022, this Feta-heavy group accounted for about 45% of total cheesemaking turnover on the…

Behind this carcass is not a generic “beef premix,” but a formulation I developed that my company markets under the name CM 1335 PRIME BEEF 2%. It is a 2% inclusion premix designed specifically for high-concentrate intensive finishing rations. The concept is simple: combine a cost-effective mineral base with a targeted package of functional ingredients that…

In 2024, I had the chance to work on a demanding year-long project with a company in Greece that operates in the animal nutrition and livestock support sector. I won’t mention the company’s name here; what matters more – and what I want to share on this page – is the project’s approach, how we…

If you look only at the headlines, goat farming in Greece sounds like an obvious opportunity: strong demand for goat milk and cheese, rising prices, a growing interest in niche and “lighter” dairy products. The data, however, tell a more nuanced story – one where volumes are almost flat, value has exploded, and market segments…

Reading the epidemic curves as a stress test for markets, institutions and incentives in Greek livestock. When sheep and goat pox appear in the news, they are usually treated as strictly veterinary issues. The graphs of weekly outbreaks, however, tell a much broader story. They explain how fragile the economic model of Greek small-ruminant farming…

From “polluting waste” to strategic input in Greek dairy – and why I chose to design a project around it. If you spend enough time inside a Greek cheese plant, you realise the business doesn’t really start with milk. It begins with what is left over when the cheese is done. That “leftover” is whey…

Why does a country that produces only 25% of the pork it consumes still have potential to develop a modern, export-focused value chain? When we talk about Greek livestock, swine are rarely the first species that come to mind. Sheep, goats and dairy cattle usually dominate the conversation. Yet behind the shelf of fresh pork…

What a London dairy conference tells us about real farms It is easy to get lost in slides, buzzwords, and acronyms when I sit through two full days of presentations. This happens at a major dairy conference in London in 2025. Yet, what stayed with me was not a single chart. There was no “big…

Why a 17% self-sufficiency rate is more than just a number.. When you only consider the consumer’s shelf, the story of beef in Greece in 2025 seems straightforward: prices have skyrocketed. But behind the price, there is a supply chain that is being transformed – from herds in France to slaughterhouses and the logistics routes…

France is the most mature small-ruminant market in Europe. It matters to us not only because it produces Roquefort and high-end sheep and goat cheeses, but because FranceAgriMer’s data show how a market behaves after prices have already shifted to a structurally higher level. Volumes can no longer grow without constraints. The key question for Greece…

Reading the 2028–2034 MFF through my lens When you examine the initial political documents for the EU’s 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), one thing becomes immediately apparent: the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is no longer regarded as a separate “agricultural box” within the EU budget. Instead, it is being integrated into a much wider financial…

What our latest peer-reviewed study in the Journal of the Hellenic Veterinary Medical Society tells us about managing feed risks in modern dairy systems. Aflatoxins present a challenging issue related to climate, feed management, and food safety. They are produced by toxigenic strains of Aspergillus in maize and other feed materials, especially when heat and moisture stress occur. When…

From grand theory about institutions to the everyday reality of managing EU funds for farmers. When you first read Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, it feels like a grand theory of history. Some countries prosper, others get stuck, not because of culture or luck, but because of how power and incentives are…

If I had to identify a single issue that embodies all the contradictions of Greek livestock farming in 2025, it would be sheep and goat pox. This situation vividly highlights how the need for strict regulations, the farmer’s anxiety to survive, and the pressure on political leaders to respond all converge. The equation “sheep pox…

Insights on part-time farming from both the farmyard and the policy table “Will pluriactive (part-time) farmers be excluded from support?” Behind it lies a much deeper issue: who qualifies as a “genuine” farmer in the European model – and who does not. Ultimately, it asks whether we want agriculture reserved solely for those who live entirely off…

From Drawer-Bound Research to Livestock Farming in the OpenAI Era Since 2025, the CAP emphasises that farmers must integrate knowledge and innovation systems (AKIS) to receive support, not just have animals, eligible pastures, and correct application. Europe wants financial support to be linked to publicly accessible knowledge, indicating that payments are for both production and…

We are seeing a big change in livestock farming. Higher costs, climate issues, animal diseases, and events like the floods in Thessaly in 2023, along with new regulations and changing demands for animal protein, have become the norm. In this situation, “resilient livestock farming” is no longer just a theory; it is essential for survival.…

How 10-Year IRR Rewrites the Playbook for Dairy, Meat, and Poultry Investments in the Greek Landscape Designing an investment roadmap for livestock means viewing each farm as a capital project, not merely as a production unit. Here’s a snapshot from my internal 10-year IRR model. It includes four projects set for 2026 in the animal…