Ioannis Kaimakamis

Today’s writing analyses the recent evolution of the Greek goat milk sector along the value chain, combining farm-gate delivery data with retail scanner information for ready-to-drink (RTD) goat milk. Using annual farm-gate records for 2021–2023 and national supermarket panel data for the same period, we quantify how value creation is distributed between primary production and a small but high-value retail segment.

At farm level, total goat milk deliveries remain broadly stable at about 160–164 thousand tonnes per year. Over 2021–2023, farm-gate quantities declined slightly by 2.5%, while the nominal value of deliveries increased by almost 59%. The average farm-gate price rose from approximately €0.60/kg in 2021 to €0.97/kg in 2023, driven by feed cost inflation, tighter supply and stronger competition for raw milk. Organic goat milk increased its share from about 10% to over 11.5% of national deliveries, with a persistent price premium over conventional.

On the retail side, we focus on the RTD goat milk category in Greek supermarkets. Supermarket RTD volumes decreased from around 10.5 million litres in 2021 to 9.8 million litres in 2023 (–6.9%), yet category value increased by about 10%, as average shelf prices rose from €2.47 to €2.92 per litre. RTD supermarket sales account for roughly 6–6.5% of national farm-gate goat milk volume, suggesting that only a small fraction of production is currently channelled into this higher-value segment.

By connecting farm-gate and retail data, the paper demonstrates that recent value increase in Greek goat milk has been almost entirely driven by prices, at both primary and retail levels, with limited evidence of volume-based upgrades into RTD formats. We discuss implications for processors and producers, arguing that capturing more value will require intentional product and channel strategies rather than relying solely on raw milk price inflation.

1. Introduction

Goat milk plays a structurally important role in Greek livestock production and the wider agrifood economy. For decades, goat milk in Greece has been channelled predominantly into white cheeses and blended products (like feta), often in combination with ewe’s milk. More recently, however, processors and retailers have experimented with branded, ready-to-drink (RTD) goat milk as a differentiated, higher-value product for health-conscious and lactose-sensitive consumers.

Despite this economic and strategic relevance, systematic, data-driven analysis of the Greek goat milk chain remains limited. Most existing work on Mediterranean small ruminants focuses on farm economics, environmental performance or PDO cheese sectors, while retail-level evidence is often restricted to descriptive market reports. Very few studies explicitly connect farm-gate developments with scanner-based retail data to understand how value is generated and shared along the chain.

My writing addresses that gap by combining two rich but typically siloed sources of information:

• national farm-gate delivery data for goat milk, disaggregated by production system (conventional vs organic) and aggregated at monthly and annual level; and
• retail scanner data for the RTD goat milk category in Greek supermarkets and other channels.

I concentrate on the period 2021–2023, a turbulent phase for dairy markets characterised by dramatic increases in feed costs, intense competition for raw milk, shifting consumer budgets, and renewed attention to local and “authentic” animal products. Within this environment, Greek goat producers experienced rapid nominal price increases while processors faced cost pressures and volatile demand.

The key question we pose is straightforward, yet essential for strategy and policy: Is the Greek goat milk sector progressing up the value chain, or is it primarily facing price inflation on a relatively stable product range? More specifically, we ask:

1. How did the volume, value and average farm-gate price of goat milk in Greece evolve between 2021 and 2023?
2. How has the balance between conventional and organic goat milk changed in terms of volumes and prices?
3. How has the RTD goat milk category in Greek supermarkets developed over the same period in terms of volume, value and price?
4. What share of national goat milk production is absorbed by RTD supermarket sales, and what does this imply for value-chain upgrading?

By answering these questions, we contribute to three strands of literature. First, we add to empirical work on dairy and small-ruminant value chains by bringing together farm-gate and retail evidence for a specific but representative national case. Second, we speak to debates on value-added product development and product differentiation in livestock supply chains. RTD goat milk is a small but emblematic example of how a traditional raw material can be repositioned in modern retail. Third, we provide granular evidence on how a price shock – here, the feed- and energy-driven inflation of the early 2020s – transmits along the chain, resulting in different trajectories for quantities and values at each stage.

The Greek case is also interesting from a policy perspective. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) supports goat farmers primarily through decoupled income support and, in some cases, coupled payments. However, policy instruments are rarely designed with a clear view of downstream market structures and product innovation. By linking farm-gate and retail data, this writing offers a more integrated basis for considering how CAP design, national dairy strategy and private investments might jointly shape the future of the goat milk sector.

The remainder of my writing is structured as follows. Section 2 briefly outlines the conceptual framework and positions the analysis within the literature on agri-food value chains. Section 3 describes the data sources and key variables. Section 4 sets out the methods used to characterise growth, to decompose price–quantity, and to analyse value-chain linkages. Section 5 presents the main empirical results. Section 6 discusses implications for producers, processors and policymakers. Section 7 concludes.

2. Conceptual framework

My analysis is grounded in a value-chain perspective, focusing on how quantity and price dynamics at different stages translate into value creation and value capture. We are not explicitly modelling contracts or bargaining. Still, I use basic micro-economic intuition: in the short run, milk volumes at the farm level are constrained by animal numbers and biological cycles, whereas prices adjust in response to input-cost shocks and competition for raw material.

At the farm level, I treat goat milk deliveries as a homogeneous stream, differentiated only by production system (conventional vs organic). Farm-gate value in a given year is the product of total quantity delivered and the average price per kilogram. I decompose changes in farm-gate value into quantity and price components to see whether sector growth is volume- or price-driven.

At the retail level, I focus on a specific product category: branded RTD goat milk in consumer packages, as recorded by supermarket scanner data. For this category, I observe the total volume sold, the total retail value, and the implied average shelf price per litre for each year. Again, I decompose changes in category value into volume and price effects.

To connect the two stages, I compute the share of national goat milk deliveries that is theoretically absorbed by RTD supermarket sales, assuming a one-to-one conversion between kilograms delivered and litres marketed (a simplification but reasonable at this level of aggregation). This provides a simple indicator of how much of the primary production base is channelled into a higher-value retail segment.

The conceptual question, therefore, becomes: When farm-gate prices increase sharply, but only a small and relatively stable fraction of production is sold as RTD-branded milk, to what extent can we speak of “moving up the value chain” rather than just experiencing a cost-push price shock? The empirical strategy below is designed to provide a transparent, data-driven answer.

3. Data

3.1 Farm-gate goat milk data

Farm-gate data were obtained from a national dataset of monthly goat milk deliveries for the period 2021–2023. The data record, for each year and month:

• total quantity delivered (in kilograms),
• average farm-gate price per kilogram,
• corresponding quantities and prices for conventional and organic milk separately.

From these monthly series, the dataset provides annual totals by year:

• total quantity (sum of monthly kilograms),
• total farm-gate value (sum of monthly euro amounts),
• annual average price (total value divided by total quantity),
• annual totals by production system.

For 2021–2023, the annual figures may be summarised as follows (values rounded):

• 2021: total deliveries of approximately 164 thousand tonnes; total farm-gate value around €98.4 million; average price €0.60/kg. Organic milk accounts for about 10.4% of volume, with a higher average price than conventional.
• 2022: total deliveries of about 160 thousand tonnes (–2.5% vs 2021); total value increases to roughly €123.6 million; average price €0.77/kg. Organic volume share rises to around 10.9%.
• 2023: total deliveries remain close to 160 thousand tonnes (essentially flat vs 2022); total value climbs to about €156.0 million; average price reaches €0.97/kg. Organic share approaches 11.5%.

These figures already suggest that most of the increase in farm-gate value is price-driven rather than volume-driven. We formalise this decomposition in Section 4.

3.2 Retail scanner data for RTD goat milk

Retail data comes from a national panel of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) scanner data. I use the RTD goat milk category in Greece for 2021–2023, with supermarkets (“S.Markets”) as the primary channel. For each year, the data include:

• total RTD goat milk volume sold in supermarkets (litres),
• total category value (euro),
• implied average retail price per litre,
• brand-level breakdowns (not exploited in depth in this initial paper).

Focusing on the total supermarket category, I observe the following pattern:

• 2021: RTD goat milk volume in supermarkets around 10.5 million litres; total value about €26.0 million; average price approximately €2.47/litre.
• 2022: volume falls to 9.83 million litres (–6.5% vs 2021); value increases to €26.9 million; average price rises to €2.74/litre.
• 2023: volume declines marginally to 9.78 million litres (–0.5% vs 2022); value increases to about €28.5 million; average price reaches €2.92/litre.

Other retail channels (small food stores, convenience stores, kiosks, etc.) are present but account for only a small share of RTD goat milk volume compared to supermarkets. In this insight, I concentrate on supermarkets as the leading modern retail channel.

4. Methods

4.1. Descriptive and growth analysis

I begin with a descriptive characterisation of farm-gate and retail developments over 2021–2023. For each stage, I compute:

• annual levels of quantity, value and average price;
• year-on-year percentage changes;
• cumulative changes over 2021–2023.

For farm-gate goat milk, I also compute the volume shares of conventional and organic production and how these evolve over time.

4.2. Price–quantity decomposition of value changes

To understand whether volumes or prices drive growth in farm-gate and retail value, we decompose changes in total value into quantity and price effects. For two consecutive years t and t+1, with quantity Q and price P, total value is V = P \times Q. The change in value can be written approximately as:

This first-order decomposition allows us to attribute the percentage change in value to separate quantity and price contributions. We apply this decomposition to:

• farm-gate value of national goat milk deliveries, and
• total supermarket RTD goat milk category value.

4.3. Linking farm-gate and retail: RTD share of national production

To connect the two stages of the chain, we compare supermarket RTD volumes with national farm-gate deliveries. Assuming a density of roughly one kilogram per litre and neglecting processing yields and losses at this aggregate level, we compute:

This indicator expresses the fraction of national goat milk that, in volume terms, is marketed as RTD branded product in supermarkets. While it is a simplification – not all goat milk necessarily passes through the farm-gate dataset in the same way, and industrial uses differ – it provides a useful first approximation of the degree of value-added upgrading.

5. Results

5.1. Farm-gate goat milk dynamics, 2021–2023

Over the period studied, total goat milk deliveries in Greece remained remarkably stable in volume terms. Deliveries declined from around 164.3 thousand tonnes in 2021 to 160.3 thousand tonnes in 2022 (–2.5%) and then held almost constant at 160.2 thousand tonnes in 2023. This suggests that, at national level, the goat sector did not expand its physical output during the feed and energy price shock; if anything, there was a modest contraction.

In contrast, the nominal value of farm-gate goat milk increased sharply. Total farm-gate value rose from approximately €98.4 million in 2021 to €123.6 million in 2022 (+25.6%) and further to €156.0 million in 2023 (+26.2% vs 2022). Over the two-year period, farm-gate value climbed by nearly 59%.

The corresponding average farm-gate price per kilogram moved from about €0.60 in 2021 to €0.77 in 2022 and €0.97 in 2023. This implies year-on-year price increases of roughly 28.8% (2021–2022) and 26.3% (2022–2023), and a cumulative increase of around 63% over the full period.

Using the approximate decomposition, we can attribute the 59% increase in farm-gate value between 2021 and 2023 to:

• a small negative quantity effect (–2.5%), and
• a large positive price effect (+62.6%).

In other words, the goat sector generated substantially more nominal income from a slightly smaller physical output, due almost entirely to higher farm-gate prices.

Conventional vs organic production

Within this overall picture, organic goat milk gained a modest but steady share. In 2021, conventional deliveries accounted for roughly 89.6% of total volume and organic for 10.4%. By 2023, the conventional share had declined to about 88.5%, while organic had risen to 11.5%. Organic milk consistently enjoyed a higher average price than conventional, reflecting quality positioning, certification costs and market demand.

Although the shift in volume shares appears small, the combination of increasing organic share and widening price differentials suggests that organic production contributed disproportionately to the increase in total farm-gate value. For processors and retailers, this trend signals growing consumer willingness to pay for credence attributes in the goat milk segment.

5.2. RTD goat milk in supermarkets

Turning to the RTD goat milk category in Greek supermarkets, we observe a different pattern. Total supermarket RTD volume declined from approximately 10.5 million litres in 2021 to 9.83 million litres in 2022 (–6.5%) and then remained nearly stable at 9.78 million litres in 2023 (–0.5% vs 2022). Over the full 2021–2023 period, RTD volumes in supermarkets fell by about 6.9%.

However, total category value increased from about €26.0 million in 2021 to €26.9 million in 2022 (+3.6%) and further to €28.5 million in 2023 (+6.2%). Cumulatively, supermarket RTD value grew by roughly 10% despite shrinking volumes.

The implied average retail price per litre rose from €2.47 in 2021 to €2.74 in 2022 and €2.92 in 2023. This corresponds to a price increase of approximately 10.7% between 2021 and 2022 and 6.7% between 2022 and 2023 – around 18% over the full period.

Applying the same decomposition, the 10% growth in supermarket RTD category value between 2021 and 2023 can be seen as the net result of:

• a negative volume effect (–6.9%),
• a positive price effect (+18.1%).

The RTD category thus experienced a “premiumisation under pressure”: consumers bought somewhat less volume but continued to accept higher prices, allowing total category value to increase modestly.

5.3. Linking farm-gate and retail: RTD share of national production

To gauge the connection between primary production and the RTD segment, Ι compare supermarket RTD volumes with total farm-gate deliveries. Assuming one litre corresponds approximately to one kilogram of milk, the ratio of RTD supermarket volume to total goat milk deliveries is:

• around 6.4% in 2021,
• roughly 6.1% in 2022,
• about 6.1% again in 2023.

Three observations follow.

First, the RTD supermarket segment relies on only a small fraction of the national goat milk production. Even after accounting for RTD channels beyond supermarkets, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of Greek goat milk continues to be used for cheese and other processing, not for bottled drinking milk.

Second, the RTD share of national deliveries is essentially flat over time. The sector has not significantly increased the proportion of goat milk channelled into this high-value retail format. Instead, both farm-gate and RTD developments are dominated by price adjustments to cost shocks.

Third, the price gradient along the chain is substantial. Comparing the average farm-gate price (around €0.60/kg in 2021 rising to €0.97/kg in 2023) with the average supermarket RTD price (from €2.47/litre to €2.92/litre) suggests a sizeable gross margin space for processing, packaging, logistics, retail and brand building. This does not, by itself, imply excessive margins at any particular stage, but it underscores the economic potential of shifting even a modest additional share of goat milk into RTD and other branded formats.

6. Discussion

The combined evidence from farm-gate and retail data paints a nuanced picture of the Greek goat milk sector during a period of strong inflationary pressure.

At the primary production stage, producers benefited from significant nominal price increases. Incomes from goat milk rose sharply, despite a slight decline in physical output. In the short term, this provided crucial relief from rising feed and energy costs and helped stabilise farm businesses. However, such rapid price rises also create vulnerabilities: if downstream demand weakens or processors cannot pass higher costs to consumers, pressure will eventually be transmitted back to the farm.

At the same time, the retail RTD goat milk segment did not show strong volume expansion. Supermarket RTD volumes declined somewhat while prices increased, and category value grew only modestly. This could reflect several factors: tightening consumer budgets under inflation, the positioning of RTD goat milk as a premium niche rather than a staple, and competitive pressure from other dairy and plant-based alternatives.

Crucially, the fact that only around 6% of national goat milk deliveries end up in supermarket RTD products suggests that the sector’s underlying value-chain structure has not fundamentally changed. Most goat milk continues to be valorised through traditional channels, primarily cheeses, where branding and differentiation are often less directly linked to the “goat” attribute than in bottled milk.

From a strategic standpoint, this raises two questions.

First, is the current balance between raw-milk price increases and product innovation sustainable? If the sector relies predominantly on raising farm-gate prices, without expanding its portfolio of higher-margin products and channels, it may face a squeeze in the next downturn when cost pressures ease but consumer budgets remain tight.

Second, what would it take to expand the share of goat milk channelled into value-added formats such as RTD?This is not just a matter of increasing production; it involves coordinated decisions on product development, marketing, channel strategy and, potentially, contractual arrangements with farmers (e.g. dedicated goat milk pools for branded products, quality-linked premia, organic conversion support).

The growing share and price premium of organic goat milk suggest that there is scope for positioning Greek goat milk as a distinct, quality- and sustainability-oriented raw material. Linking organic production more explicitly to branded RTD products – for example through organic or PDO labelling, origin claims and targeted health communication – could be one pathway to both deepen and broaden the value-added segment.

7. Conclusions and implications

My insights writing has employed a straightforward yet powerful combination of farm-gate and retail scanner data to analyse the recent developments in the Greek goat milk sector. Between 2021 and 2023:

• total farm-gate goat milk deliveries remained broadly constant,
• farm-gate value increased by almost 60%, driven overwhelmingly by higher prices rather than higher volumes,
• organic milk gained a modest but steady share of total deliveries, reinforcing a quality-driven segment,
• supermarket RTD goat milk volumes declined slightly, while category value rose by about 10% on the back of rising retail prices, and
• supermarket RTD volumes accounted for only around 6% of national goat milk deliveries, a share that remained essentially unchanged.

Taken together, these findings indicate that the Greek goat milk sector has not yet embarked on a structural shift towards higher-value, branded products on a large scale. Instead, it has navigated a cost and price shock through substantial nominal price adjustments at both farm and retail levels, with modest changes in product mix and channel allocation.

For producers, the key implication is that long-term resilience cannot rest solely on high farm-gate prices. Investments in milk quality and in partnerships with processors willing and able to develop value-added products will be essential.

For processors and retailers, the data suggest an opportunity but also a challenge. The RTD segment is small but clearly capable of sustaining prices well above farm-gate levels. Expanding this segment – or developing adjacent formats such as functional, flavoured or on-the-go goat milk products – could help anchor a more robust demand base for goat milk. Realising this potential will require deliberate strategies on branding, positioning and risk-sharing with suppliers.

For policy makers, the analysis underscores the importance of viewing CAP instruments and national livestock policy through a value-chain lens. Support measures that encourage goat farming in marginal areas are necessary but not sufficient: complementary actions to foster quality schemes, innovation in processing and effective marketing channels are needed if the sector is to move from surviving price shocks to capturing sustained value.

Finally, from a research perspective, future work could build on this foundation by:

• analysing brand-level dynamics and market concentration within the RTD goat milk segment,
• extending the value-chain link to cheese and other processing outlets, and
• incorporating cost data to study margin distribution more explicitly.

In that sense, the present analysis should be seen both as an empirical contribution on the Greek goat milk sector and as a methodological template for similar work in other animal protein chains.