Ioannis Kaimakamis, PhD

Why a 17% self-sufficiency rate is more than just a number..

When you only consider the consumer’s shelf, the story of beef in Greece in 2025 seems straightforward: prices have skyrocketed. But behind the price, there is a supply chain that is being transformed – from herds in France to slaughterhouses and the logistics routes that deliver live animals and beef into my country.

The latest data on the Greek beef market reveal a pattern that extends well beyond a temporary price spike. They indicate that we are entering a new phase of scarcity. Domestic output declined by 7.5% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to 2024, while consumption rose by nearly 6%. Imports almost entirely compensated for the shortfall: +33% in live animals and +6% in beef. Consequently, the self-sufficiency ratio has fallen to 17.1% – less than one-fifth of consumption is met by Greek production, the lowest level in the past five years.

In simple terms, Greece is not just structurally deficient in beef. It is fully exposed to whatever happens outside its borders.

The reliance is tangible, with specific names and locations. For decades, the Greek market for store cattle depended on France and, to a lesser extent, Ireland, Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria. In 2025, this model confronted three simultaneous shocks.

First, Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) spread in France and Italy, prompting the French Ministry of Agriculture to temporarily halt exports of live cattle and implement strict movement controls. Outbreaks in areas such as Prades, Cret, Dole, and Bourg-en-Bresse in the autumn of 2025 led to delays, increased costs for controls and vaccination, and – most importantly – fewer animals available for finishing.

Second, the French herd itself is shrinking. Beef and dairy cows decline by about 2.5–3% annually, while French beef production and slaughter figures have also decreased. France remains slightly surplus, but it has ceased to be an “infinite reservoir” of store cattle for the rest of Europe.

Third, the same pattern repeats across the EU-27. Between 2023 and 2025, Europe lost almost one million cows; beef production in the first seven months of 2025 fell by about 3%, EU exports declined and imports from third countries increased. On paper the EU remains self-sufficient, with an average ratio around 106%, but this hides huge differences: Ireland, Poland and Romania have large surpluses, while Italy, Portugal and Greece run deep deficits. Greece sits at the bottom of the table, with self-sufficiency at 17% and an annual trade deficit of roughly 75,000 tonnes.

In this environment, Greece is no longer purchasing cattle in a “surplus market”. It is competing with other deficit countries in the South for access to an increasingly limited pool of finishing animals.

The figures confirm what every operator in the chain already suspects. Imports of live cattle into Greece increased, from January to August 2025, by more than 27% in volume and 55% in value. Average import prices for store cattle rose by about 20% and for pure-bred breeding animals by approximately 25%.

Across Europe, producer prices for categories such as French R and U cows or 450-kg Charolais have surged by 30–50% year-on-year. Carcass prices for key categories remain at historic highs and, at retail level, demand has only marginally decreased – especially in Southern Europe, where beef maintains a strong presence in the food basket. 

For Greece, this signifies that we are entering a phase where price is no longer the primary adjustment mechanism. There is no simple “return to normal” through a minor correction. When the issue is scarcity of animals, rather than just the cost of feed or animal health, the market ceases to behave in a traditional cyclical manner. Decisions made today regarding herd size, reproduction, and investment will influence the landscape not in 2026 but in 2030.

For many years, the implicit Greek strategy on beef was clear: we do not invest heavily in domestic herds, we rely on European imports, and we treat beef as a product that will “always be there” at reasonable prices. This strategy worked in a world where Europe had a structural surplus and where climate, animal health, and geopolitical risks were all lower.

By 2025, those conditions no longer apply. The EU is gradually becoming a net importer of beef for industrial purposes, with increasing flows from Mercosur, while environmental restrictions on intensive production within Europe are tightening. Most of the additional volumes from Latin America involve frozen beef for burgers and processed products, not for the butcher’s counter. Fears that Europe will be swamped with cheap imported beef are not coming true. In reality, the issue is the opposite: securing enough and stable quantities. 

In such a landscape, for a nation with a 17% self-sufficiency rate, beef ceases to be merely another product category and becomes a strategic resource. The discussion can no longer be confined to whether consumers are willing to pay one or two euros more per kilogram. It must focus on how.

• Greece slows down or reverses the decline of its cattle herd,
• it protects import flows from sanitary and geopolitical shocks,
• it builds finishing and slaughter business models that can survive store-cattle prices that are 30–50% higher.

This is not just about subsidies or per-head premiums. It is about gaining access to knowledge, data, and long-term commercial relationships. It is about recognising beef finishing not as a side activity but as a sector with a clear strategy: from breed choices and reproductive performance to health, nutrition, risk management, and contracts with processors and retailers.

If there is one conclusion from the 2025 data, it is that we are entering a decade where the core question for beef will not be “how much does it cost?” but “can I get it?” Europe is shifting from an era of oversupply to one of scarcity. Surplus countries will decide with whom they build stable relationships. Deficit countries – like Greece – will have to choose whether they remain passive price takers or invest in a more active strategy for the beef supply chain.

With self-sufficiency at 17%, near-total dependence on imported animals and meat, and a shrinking European herd, the current status quo is not a neutral choice. It is a choice of increased structural risk.

The real question for the next five years is not whether prices will return to 2019 levels. It is whether Greece will treat beef as a strategic pillar of its food security – or continue to hope that “somewhere in Europe there will always be enough cattle” to keep the shelves stocked.

A carcass, produced by me, on the rail in a Thessaly slaughterhouse – behind every steak, there is a delicate supply chain.