France is the most mature small-ruminant market in Europe. It matters to us not only because it produces Roquefort and high-end sheep and goat cheeses, but because FranceAgriMer’s data show how a market behaves after prices have already shifted to a structurally higher level. Volumes can no longer grow without constraints.
The key question for Greece in 2026–2030 is not “how many euros per litre or kilos do French farmers get?”, but what market model those numbers describe – and how it can be used as a reference case for rebuilding a regional livestock sector.
1. Sheep milk: marginal volumes, strong price re-rating
On the dairy sheep sector, France enters 2025 with a market where volumes are almost flat. By the end of September 2025, total collected sheep milk stands at about 240.4 million litres, versus 239.9 million litres over the same period in 2024 – essentially a +0.2% change. September 2025 deliveries reach 4.9 million litres, +3.5% year-on-year, while weekly data now suggest a cumulative increase of around +2% for the 2025 campaign as a whole.
The real story is not volume; it is price. Monthly indices from the Enquête Mensuelle Laitière (base 100 in January 2022) show the real price index (indice du prix réel) rising from 122.5 in January 2025 to 162.9 in September – an increase of roughly +33% in nine months. Compared with the base 100, September 2025 is about 63% higher and 7.5% above September 2024.
If we anchor the index on a conservative average of ~1,000 €/1,000 litres in 2022, the September 2025 index corresponds to an order of magnitude of ~1,620–1,630 €/1,000 litres. This is not an official figure but a reasonable magnitude for the new French “normal”.
In other words, with almost unchanged volumes, the French sheep-milk market has undergone a strong re-pricing of the real farm-gate value, especially in Q3 2025. Milk is not catastrophically scarce – but it is scarce enough to be valued very differently.
2. Geographic architecture: why clusters matter
The 2025 shows that production is highly concentrated in France:
- Occitanie accounts for roughly 178 million litres, more than 70% of total French deliveries.
- Nouvelle-Aquitaine contributes another 56.5 million litres.
- Remaining regions (Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Corse, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) hold small – and in some cases shrinking – shares, with Corsica down about -9.1% year-on-year.
The French model is therefore not “a bit of everything, everywhere”, but two dominant production clusters with critical mass of flocks, dairies, co-ops, abattoirs, feed companies and service providers. These are the geographies where:
- volume is concentrated,
- prices are effectively formed,
- and investment decisions are anchored.
In organic sheep milk, the picture is more nuanced. By end-September 2025, organic deliveries fall from 26.3 to 25.7 million litres (-2.5%). Nouvelle-Aquitaine is down -5.3%, while Occitanie records a slightly higher September but a cumulative drop of around -2.8% on the campaign.
Yet the Tableau de bord shows that output of sheep-milk products is increasing:
- yoghurts/fermented products: +8.8%,
- fresh cheeses: +2.9%,
- other cheeses (hard/semi-hard): +4.3% vs 2024.
So the market sends a clear signal: slightly less premium raw milk, significantly more premium products. This gap between raw-milk availability and product demand underpins the upward pressure on farm-gate prices.
3. Goat milk: a high-price plateau with contracting supply
Goat milk tells a different but complementary story – especially for risk management.
Average farm-gate prices (all qualities, €/100 litres) are:
- 2022: 85.24 €/100 l
- 2023: 92.52 €/100 l
- 2024: 93.88 €/100 l
- 2025 (to September): 90.66 €/100 l
Year-on-year changes are +7.45%, +8.53%, +1.47%, +0.69%. The market moves up in two strong steps in 2022–2023, peaks in 2024 and then stabilises slightly below that peak while remaining historically high.
Intra-year, 2025 follows the classic U-shaped curve: very high prices early in the year, a trough around June–July (≈82 €/100 l), and a strong recovery in August–September (89.1–96.7 €/100 l).
On the volume side, the pattern is the opposite of sheep:
- total goat-milk deliveries up to September 2025 fall from 400.0 to 392.9 million litres (-1.8%),
- organic goat milk contracts by -12.8%, and the number of organic producers declines by around -14.1%.
Despite this shrinking supply, the average price does not rise again; it remains on a high plateau. This indicates that the processing industry has already transferred most of the cost increases to the shelves and is now close to the price consumers are willing to pay, partly compensating for supply risk through:
- imported raw material,
- flexible milk-mix strategies,
- and technology-driven cost optimisation at plant level.
4. Use cases for Greece 2026–2030
Translating this “French model” into a Greek context yields five concrete use cases for C-suite discussions with co-ops, processors, financial partners and bankers.
4.1 Objective: stabilise volumes, don’t chase litres
The French experience shows that a mature sheep-milk sector can remain economically strong with annual volume growth in the 0–2% range.
For Greece, after significant livestock losses, the relevant KPI for 2026–2030 is not “+X% litres per year”, but:
- rebuilding the herd with stable output,
- higher output per animal and per FTE,
- and a healthier age structure of herds.
Use case: a five-year recovery plan where the volume target is “stable to +1% per year”, while the real stretch targets are set on productivity and EBITDA per litre or kilos for the farmers and processors.
4.2 Livestock clusters instead of dispersion
Just as Occitanie and Nouvelle-Aquitaine “hold” the French sector, Thessaly needs 1–2 anchor areas:
- Thessaly, Central Macedonia, West Macedonia, Epirus – sheep milk with strong PDO Feta / hard cheese positioning.
- Wider other Regional Prefectures zone – sheep and goat milk with potential for specialised products.
Within these zones, policy and industry can support:
- a shared data room on production costs and performance,
- common animal-welfare and quality protocols,
- and multi-annual contracts between farmers and processors, including indexation clauses and transparent risk-sharing.
Use case: a cluster agreement where a dairy signs a 10-year framework with a producer group, using a floor price indexed to national/European indicators plus a quality and welfare premium.
4.3 Premium portfolios as the main price lever
French data show that upward pressure on raw-milk prices comes from product mix, not from volume games.
For Greece, this means the strategy cannot be “let’s push the processor for +0.10 €/l or Kg” in isolation. It requires a structured plan for:
- PDO-based portfolios,
- organic and low-input lines,
- and targeted development of spreads, other speciality cheeses and yoghurts.
Use case: a dairy business plan that does not simply ask retailers for a price increase, but presents a portfolio shift designed to generate higher €/kg of added value, which in turn justifies and sustains a better farm-gate price.
4.4 Price-risk management by indices, not gut feeling
The Enquête Mensuelle Laitière and IPPAP indices are not academic luxuries; they are the basis for monitoring and risk-sharing between state, co-ops and industry.
An equivalent Greek architecture would include:
- regional price and cost indices,
- their systematic use as reference points in contracts (price bands around the index),
- and automatic adjustment clauses when prices move outside a predefined corridor.
Use case: a contract where “Greek price” = (sheep-milk index × convergence factor) ± a negotiated range, with explicit triggers for renegotiation when European or Greek prices deviate beyond that range.
4.5 Goat milk as an early-warning indicator
The French goat-milk market shows how a sector can reach a structural plateau:
- supply contracts,
- prices remain high but no longer trend upwards,
- and new investments in litres or kilograms carry the risk of arriving “late” into a mature market.
For Greece – where goat milk is often treated as a secondary– this implies that strategy must be far more selective: goat projects should be built around niche and functional products, not around volume expansion.
Use case: an investment case in goat milk where IRR is driven by €/kg of speciality products, under a conservative assumption that farm-gate prices stay flat rather than continue to rise.
5. From price comparison to model design
The French trajectory of sheep and goat milk between 2022 and 2025 is not just a story of “good prices”. It is a case study in how a mature market:
- keeps volumes stable or slowly increasing,
- builds around clusters and premium product strategies,
- and uses indices and data to manage a high-price, but broadly balanced, environment.
For Greece 2026–2030, the core question is therefore not only “what will the pay for raw milk in January 2026?”, but whether we can design a value chain that behaves more like Occitanie and less like a loose sum of individual sheds. French indicators are a mirror of a market model that can serve either as a reference to emulate or as a warning of what happens if we continue with business as usual.
High-yield dairy goats in an intensive system – the ‘factory floor’ behind milk market numbers.